Q: Gerald, house prices have been rising for a while now. When is the next real estate market downturn going to happen? Wendy, Great Neck, NY. A: Wendy, based on the historic 18 year real estate cycle, most local real estate markets in America are still in the expansion phase of the 4 phase cycle. We have to go beyond expansion to the hyper-supply phase before we would be faced with another recession. Based on the 18 year cycle, we’re about 7 years from another real estate market downturn. Bear in mind, that the 18 year real estate cycle is just a framework, what really matters is what actually happens in your local real estate market. Thanks for your question, […]
continue reading Q: Gerald, my best friend got burned when real estate prices fell 10 years ago and I’m worried. Where’s the market now and is there a threat of another bubble? Frank, Park City, UT A: Frank, every local real estate market is different so I’m always reluctant to over-generalize, however, things are different than they were 10 years ago. In the last real estate market downturn, there was a real estate bubble and a credit bubble that burst and caused financial havoc. I am going to share with you the four phases of the real estate cycle and where most real estate markets in the US are now. There are four phases to the real estate cycle: 1. Recovery, 2. […]
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